Tata Sons, India's biggest promoter in the private sector, is expected to earn a record Rs 27,797 crore via equity dividend and proceeds through share buyback from its listed group companies for the financial year 2021-22. This amount is up 17.6 per cent from Rs 23,663 crore that it pocketed in FY21. Nearly two-thirds of these proceeds will show up in Tata Sons' financial results for FY22, thanks to the quarterly interim dividend by its cash cow Tata Consultancy Services (TCS).
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
The much-talked-about sale of Ambuja Cement and ACC by Holcim Group will see the single-biggest outflow of foreign capital from the country if the two cement firms are acquired by Indian investors. The deal, valued at nearly $10.35 billion, will put in the shade Cairn Energy Plc's exit from India in 2010, when it sold Cairn India to Vedanta Group for $4.48 billion. According to various reports, big business groups such as AV Birla, JSW Group, and Adani Group are in the fray to acquire Holcim's assets in India.
The early bird results for the January-March 2022 quarter (Q4FY22) hint at a slowdown in corporate sector growth in the upcoming quarters. The combined net sales of the 81 early bird companies in the Business Standard sample were up 15.1 per cent year-on-year in Q4FY22; this was less than the 15.9 per cent YoY jump reported in Q3FY22. The slowdown could be much stronger for the domestic market-focused companies, including those in the banking, finance, and insurance (BFSI) space.
10 stocks which are most popular with brokerages right now and are expected to deliver maximum upside over the next 12 months.
The two-wheeler sector has been underperforming its peers on the volumes front for over five quarters now. Even in the March quarter, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp posted a 17-24 per cent YoY decline in volumes, the sharpest in the listed auto universe. The ongoing impact of frequent price hikes, all-time high fuel prices, and muted rural sentiment has led to the lacklustre showing by two-wheeler makers. What has aggravated the situation for two-wheeler companies, which get almost all their sales from the internal combustion engine or ICE-based units, is the traction for electric two-wheelers (EV).
When Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India gets listed on the bourses next month, it will be among the biggest listed life insurers globally in terms of market capitalisation (m-cap), assets, and revenue, but will also be among the least profitable and capitalised among its peer group. A big gap between LIC's m-cap, profits, and networth (shareholder capital) will make it one of the priciest insurers globally, in terms of price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and price-to-book value (P/B) ratio. LIC also lags behind its Indian listed peers in terms of profit and networth.
The possible acquisition of Holcim India business will be one of the biggest inbound corporate deals in the country. Currently, Walmart Inc.'s $16-billion acquisition of Flipkart Online Services in 2018 remains the biggest acquisition of an Indian asset by any acquirer, followed by BP plc acquisition of 30 per cent stake in Reliance Industries' 23 oil and gas production blocks in 2011 for $7.2 billion. Bloomberg reported late on Wednesday night that Holcim - the world's biggest cement maker - is considering a potential sale of its India business and gauging interest in its controlling stake in Ambuja Cement.
Despite Covid downturn, CEO salaries went up by an average of 19% in FY21.
Consumer stocks remain the biggest laggard on the bourses. The Nify50 weighting of FMCG stocks declined to a decade low of 9.9 per cent at the end of March this year, down 150 basis points from 11.4 per cent a year ago. At their peak in March 2013, major FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Asian Paints, together accounted for 15 per cent of the Nifty50. But now together with automobile stocks, the consumer goods sector accounts for only 14.7 per cent of the index, down 200 basis points in the past 12 months and 37 per cent from the record high weighting of 23.4 per cent at the end of March 2014.
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
There are multiple near-term worries for the stock of India's largest listed consumer company, Hindustan Unilever (HUL). While inflationary pressures will weigh on its profitability, demand pressures - especially in the rural market - are expected to hit the firm's revenues. This is why brokerages have cut the earnings estimates for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) by 7-10 per cent.
The ruble has recouped most of its losses and become the top-performing currency globally. It continues to gain and is up 60 per cent against the US dollar from its lows in the first week of March. The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) - the largest information technology (IT) services provider in India and the second-largest globally - recently set an ambitious goal of $50 billion in revenue by 2030. The growth required to reach this goal, however, is lower than the company's own standards. In the past decade, TCS revenues, or net sales in US dollar terms, have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5 per cent, from $10.2 in 2011-12, to an expected $25.3 billion during 2021-22 (FY22), based on its revenue trend in the first nine months of FY22.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
The biggest jump in earnings and decline in P/E multiples has occurred with top companies in metals and mining, corporate banking, and the oil and gas sectors.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
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